City-level carbon peaks in Jiangsu Province, China

China has set the target of carbon peaking before 2030. Jiangsu Province is a major industrial province and carbon emitter in China. It is of great significance to carry out carbon emission and carbon peak prediction for Jiangsu Province to help the country achieve the carbon peak as scheduled. Due to the significant variations in the social and economic development of cities, a unified carbon peaking path for all cities may result in low efficiency and inequality in its implementation as it overlooks the disparities among cities. City-level carbon emissions prediction is important for differentiate planning of carbon-peaking actions. However, such study has been lacking in Jiangsu. Based on the county-level panel data, a regression model was fitted to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province. Combined with the future social and economic development scenarios of each city, the carbon peak time and peak emissions of each city were further predicted. It is found that there is a significant Kuznets curve effect between carbon emissions and per capita GDP in Jiangsu Province. Under the condition of maintaining a positive trend in social and economic development, further enhancing industrial and energy structure adjustment, and carbon emission reduction technology development, Jiangsu Province can achieve the goal of carbon peak by 2030. This study also revealed significant disparities in the social and economic development levels, carbon peak time, and peak emissions among different cities. It is necessary to develop an overall plan and arrangement for the peak times of various cities, implement orderly emission reduction strategies, and set different peak targets for each city. This strategy could ensure regional equity and maximize the overall social and economic development at both the provincial and regional levels.