Analysis demonstrates economic viability in solar planning for energy independence in Cuba, highlighting key technical factors and geographic analysis.
Island nations face significant challenges in terms of energy security and sustainability, with limited space for infrastructure development and high dependence on imported fuels, making strategic renewable energy planning critical. This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for optimal solar photovoltaic deployment in Cuba that balances technical feasibility, economic viability, and geographic equity across a 25-year planning horizon. A novel multistaged multicriteria optimization framework was developed that integrates geospatial analysis with economic, technical, social, and policy considerations. Composite feasibility scoring combines distance metrics, economic indicators, and technical parameters to evaluate sites. Phased deployment optimization via the electrical storm optimization algorithm determines the optimal 25-year implementation sequence for 14.39 GW of capacity across all provinces. The analysis reveals significant east‒west disparities in site quality, with eastern provinces offering superior opportunities due to better land availability and solar resources. Monte Carlo simulation (n = 1,000) demonstrated robust economic viability, with a mean NPV of 15,420 MUSD, 16.4 % IRR, and 34.8 USD/MWh LCOE. However, the cost could be 10–15 % greater if grid reinforcement is considered. Sensitivity analysis identifies the capacity factor, capital costs, and electricity pricing as critical risk factors. The optimized deployment strategy prioritizes high-feasibility areas in early phases while implementing variable annual capacity additions, with peaks approaching 1,000 MW during key periods. This holistic approach provides a replicable methodology for island nations seeking strategic renewable energy planning under resource constraints, effectively aligning spatial opportunities with temporal implementation pathways to maximize economic and environmental benefits while ensuring regional balance.
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Calvo et al. (2025) studied this question.
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