Livelihood Vulnerability Levels of Smallholder Farmers to Climate Change in Selected Parts of Makueni County, Kenya

Abstract— Climate change poses a significant threat to smallholder farmers’ livelihoods, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as Kenya’s Makueni County, where rain-fed agriculture dominates. Increasing rainfall variability, recurrent droughts, and extreme temperatures have undermined food security, incomes, and resilience. This study assessed livelihood vulnerability to climate change in three agro-ecological zones, Mbooni (semi-humid), Makueni (semi-arid), and Kibwezi East (arid), focusing on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Guided by the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framework by Hahn et al. (2009), a descriptive mixed-methods design was employed. Data from 289 smallholder households were collected through questionnaires, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews, with quantitative analysis conducted in SPSS and qualitative data thematically analyzed. Results showed that 76.8% of farmers experienced extreme weather, with water scarcity emerging as the most critical vulnerability. Key indicators influencing vulnerability included high dependency ratios, female-headed households, limited crop diversity, low grain storage capacity, reliance on own-farm production, long distances to healthcare facilities, and weak access to credit and extension services. Adaptive capacity was constrained by inadequate irrigation infrastructure, limited non-farm income opportunities, and underutilization of indigenous knowledge. The study recommends strengthening water infrastructure, promoting drought-tolerant crops and diversified farming systems, improving access to agricultural finance, and integrating climate-smart practices into extension services. Policy interventions should embed climate adaptation into county development plans and enhance social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable. Such measures are vital for safeguarding livelihoods and sustaining agricultural productivity amid intensifying climate risks.