Modeling the Dynamics of the Characteristics of Snow Cover Formation Regime on the Territory of Russian Federation. 4. Scenario Projecting of Changes in Snow Cover Characteristics in the 21st Century

A methodology for scenario projecting of changes in the characteristics of snow cover on the territory of the Russian Federation in the 21st century has been developed. The methodology is based on the use of the SWAP land surface model in combination with scenario projections of the long-term dynamics of meteorological forcing fields simulated by five global climate models. Using the developed methodology, the fields of climatic values of maximum snow water equivalent and snow cover duration were simulated for the Russian Federation territory for three projection periods and various scenarios of climate change in the 21st century. The patterns of dynamics of climatic values of snow cover characteristics up to 2100 for the main geographical regions of the Russian Federation (European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, Eastern Siberia and the Far East) were analyzed.