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Analysis demonstrates child mortality risk affects fertility levels while adult mortality risk alters reproductive timing across 204 countries, implying complex demographic interactions.
After presenting their two-tier model, Ellis, Reid, and Kramer (2024) tentatively state that child mortality risk should predict offspring quantity, while adult mortality risk should accelerate reproductive timing. I test these assertions using mortality risk and fertility data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project for 204 countries and territories over 32 years, finding partial support for their predictions.
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Gillian V Pepper (2025) studied this question.
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