Using Subjective Measures for Numeracy and Spatial Cognition to Predict Accuracy of Interpreting a Tropical Forecast Graphic

The weather domain has given a lot of attention towards numeracy, meaning a person’s ability to understand numerical information, for predicting how accurately different groups interpret forecast information. However, these forecasts are often presented graphically with a map, yet not many studies include a geographic equivalent to numeracy in their measures. Additionally, despite the cognitive load on participants, much of the literature measures numeracy and spatial cognition with mathematical tests. This study provides justification from interdisciplinary literature for using subjective scales to measure spatial cognition, or the ability to understand maps, along with numeracy to predict accuracy. Using a new wind speed exceedance threshold (WSET) tropical cyclone graphic, we tested the relationships between numeracy, spatial cognition, and accuracy in a public survey (n = 624) and with nineteen experts (emergency managers and meteorologists) from Louisiana and Florida. Numeracy independently predicted accuracy of interpretation, with spatial cognition having a small, statistically nonsignificant effect. This study provides empirical support for measuring numeracy and spatial cognition using subjective scales, as well as an accuracy measure for a new tropical forecast graphic. Future studies should continue to measure both numeracy and spatial cognition when assessing how individual characteristics impact forecast graphic interpretation.