Crime Spatiotemporal Prediction Through Urban Region Representation by Using Building Footprints

Current crime spatiotemporal prediction models are limited by the insufficient ability of POI data to represent the continuity and mixed-use nature of urban spatial functions. To address this, our study applies an urban region representation method based on building footprints and validates its effectiveness in improving the accuracy of crime spatiotemporal prediction. Specially, we first use the Region Dual Contrastive Learning algorithm to generate region representations as a region graph by integrating building footprints and POI data. Then, the region graph combined with crime data is input into crime prediction models to predict four crime types, including Burglary, Robbery, Felony Assault, and Grand Larceny. Finally, ablation experiments are conducted to quantify the contribution of building footprints to prediction improvement. The experimental results on New York City crime data indicate that (1) the region representations significantly improve deep learning model performance, with the most improved LSTM achieving average increases of 5.66% in Macro-F1 and 18.57% in Micro-F1, particularly benefiting baseline models with lower accuracy, and (2) the region representations yield more significant improvements for low-frequency crime categories and mitigates temporal memory decay in long-term predictions. These findings confirm that incorporating urban region representation based on building footprints effectively enhances crime spatiotemporal prediction performance, providing a more precise and efficient tool for urban security management to optimize police resource allocation and crime prevention strategies.