Emerging Force Balances and Postures in South Asia: Trends and Trajectories

South Asia has been embroiled in an action-reaction arms race dynamic for over half a century, marked by several episodes of crises and conflict between India and Pakistan. Following overt nuclearisation in 1998, both countries have continued to develop their conventional and nuclear forces, while India has pursued space for limited war through progressive doctrinal and capability enhancements. Pakistan has responded proportionately through doctrinal evolution and force modernisation to close perceived gaps in its deterrence posture. However, since the 2020 India-China Ladakh crisis, India’s conventional superiority with Pakistan has eroded, prompting greater reliance on its dual-use missile arsenal and latent nuclear potential.