Multi‐Scenario Stochastic Modeling of Failure in Power Transmission Lines

Transmission lines are crucial to the power grid. While they are continuously exposed to diverse environmental conditions, certain unpredictable conditions such as extreme wind, wildfire, and icing pose catastrophic risks to the reliability and integrity of the transmission lines. This paper presents a comprehensive thermo‐electro‐mechanical model to investigate the effect of extreme wind, wildfire, and icing on transmission lines over time in the presence of initial damage and current demand load. The developed method offers an in‐depth perspective on temperature and damage evolution within the power lines by incorporating a damage and fatigue phase field model, with thermal and electrical models. We study three scenarios deterministically to establish a basic understanding and subsequently analyze the forward uncertainty quantification (UQ), sensitivity analysis (SA), and the probability of failure using the probabilistic collocation method (PCM). The presence of initial damage significantly reduces the life span of the transmission line. In addition, the probability of failure increased substantially in the presence of unexpected conditions such as extreme wind, wildfires, and icing. This approach offers an in‐depth examination of the potential risks associated with transmission lines under adverse conditions.