Assessment of the Crown Condition of Oak (Quercus) in Poland—Analysis of Defoliation Trends and Regeneration in the Years 2015–2024

Long-term monitoring of tree crown condition is essential for assessing forest resilience under increasing climatic variability. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of oak (Quercus spp.) defoliation trends in Poland from 2015 to 2024, based on national forest health monitoring data. Mean defoliation remained relatively stable until 2018, followed by a significant increase in 2019 (+5.1 percentage points; p < 0.001), coinciding with a major drought event across Central Europe. In subsequent years, defoliation gradually decreased and stabilised, indicating partial canopy recovery. Segmented regression and spline models revealed a consistent breakpoint in 2019 across all age classes, with the most severe crown damage recorded in stands older than 100 years. Younger stands showed lower defoliation levels and higher regenerative capacity. A nonlinear relationship between defoliation and growing-season precipitation was also identified, showing that when rainfall fell below 40 mm, canopy loss exceeded 30%. The results confirm that oak defoliation reflects both short-term climatic stress and long-term structural changes. Integrating monitoring data with climatic analyses and statistical modelling improves the detection of stress-related drivers and the assessment of recovery processes. The combined use of these approaches supports adaptive forest management strategies, including the promotion of mixed-species and multi-aged stands, improvement of soil nutrient conditions, and targeted monitoring of drought-sensitive age classes, thereby enhancing the resilience of oak ecosystems to climate change.