The Miners of South America: Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of Geositta Miners Along Elevational Gradients

Range shifts along elevational gradients are a common response of species to changing climate, particularly in tropical regions where temperature decreases sharply with elevation. In this study, we investigate the current and future distribution of seven Geositta species (Furnariidae), which inhabit arid and semi‐arid open habitats across different elevations in South America. Using ecological niche modeling, we assessed climatic suitability under two climate change scenarios: an optimistic scenario with reduced emissions and a pessimistic scenario with continued high emissions. Species distribution models were generated with the MAXENT algorithm, using 100 replicates per species. Future projections, based on two General Circulation Models (2061–2080), evaluated the influence of elevation on climatic niche availability. Our results indicate that six of the seven Geositta species will likely face significant habitat loss under all scenarios, with the pessimistic scenario causing the most severe reductions. Climatic suitability patterns differed between lowland and highland species, influenced by vegetational and elevational zonation of the Andean slopes. For highland species, suitable conditions were mostly restricted to higher elevations within their current ranges, reflecting the geographic constraints that limit their ability to shift upslope. These findings highlight the vulnerability of Geositta to climate change, stressing the urgency of conservation efforts. Protecting mid‐ to high‐elevation habitats and transitional zones, while reducing anthropogenic pressures, will be key to safeguarding species with limited dispersal abilities. Although our models suggest most species are likely to retain substantial portions of their climatically suitable range, their future persistence may still depend on habitat availability, dispersal capacity, and other ecological constraints.