Conservation priorities for Neotropical water striders (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Gerridae) under climate change

Hydrologic changes are increasing globally as human populations grow and climate change alters the planet's energetic and hydric balance. Such changes are widespread in the Neotropical region, especially in large basins, and can deeply affect the aquatic biota. This study aims to determine priority areas of the Neotropics for the conservation of water striders (Hemiptera: Heteroptera: Gerridae), based on species distribution models under different climate scenarios of the past, present, and future. General patterns recovered for 2050 and 2080 are congruent under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. There is an overall increase in the conservation importance of the northern Andes and coastal areas of eastern South America, while the central portion of South America decreases. The importances of Guianan Lowlands and Roraima provinces decrease in the most optimistic scenario for 2050, whereas Madeira, Xingu‐Tapajós, and Chaco decrease in all future projections. Areas such as the Antilles and the Mexican Transition Zone, in turn, remain constant when compared with the past and present. The changes detected are probably related to a lower climate suitability for many species currently present in certain areas of the Neotropics and their migration to more suitable areas.