Process development priorities for scaling up direct microbial conversion of sugars into value‐added biochemicals

Abstract The study identified process development priorities toward the feasible production of five value‐added biochemicals in a sugarcane biorefinery based on achievable bioconversion performances. Multiple process scenarios using A‐molasses as feedstock were simulated in Aspen Plus® via direct microbial conversions. Techno‐economic and carbon footprint analyses were conducted using full factorial design (FFD) to couple fermentation performance with key viability indicators, and Monte Carlo simulation was used to assess financial uncertainty. 3‐Hydroxypropanoic acid (3‐HP) and 2, 3‐butanediol emerged as promising candidates for short‐term deployment, with current technology performances showing acceptable cost of production compared with market prices reporting internal rates of return of 45. 7 and 26. 6%, respectively. Adipic acid should be prioritized for medium‐term development as minimal improvements from current bioconversion efficiencies were required to achieve commercial competitiveness according to the factorial design. Acrylic acid (AA) showed the highest potential for profitability in the long‐term, with potential selling prices of 788–1397 t −1 AA, but required order of magnitude technology improvements to achieve it. Alternatively, AA production from sugar‐derived 3‐HP, which could achieve up to 43. 0% lower minimum selling prices and 73. 4% less greenhouse gas emissions compared with fossil‐based methods, should be prioritized for medium‐term deployment of AA. Technically achievable performances for all five products indicated potential to meet financial targets for supplanting their fossil‐based equivalents, at a significantly lower carbon footprint, justifying ongoing investment in strain and bioprocess development.