Observational analysis improved squall line dynamics in complex terrain, indicating enhanced data assimilation impact on forecasts.
Based on the WRF-3DVar system, this study investigates the impacts of assimilating radar and automatic weather station (AWS) observations, both independently and jointly, for a squall line case that occurred over complex terrain in China on 30 May 2024. It is found that radar data assimilation with spatial truncation significantly enhances the representation of convective structures while reducing false echoes by about 40%. However, when the variance and correlation length scales are enlarged, reflectivity intensity is increased by 5–10 dBZ with false signals and positional errors also introduced, while a balanced scheme is observed to yield the highest skill scores. Assimilation of AWS alone provides limited improvements, whereas radar assimilation introduces localized structures that rapidly decay within 1–2 h due to the absence of boundary-layer constraints. The benefits of joint assimilation are clearly demonstrated in terms of spatial continuity and vertical consistency, with the assimilation order being identified as a decisive factor. When AWS is assimilated prior to radar, low-level thermodynamic and dynamic conditions are optimized, leading to strengthened cold pool structures by around 2 K, enhanced updrafts by over 20%, and improved wind distribution. The critical role of AWS-radar joint assimilation in capturing the dynamical characteristics of squall lines is thus highlighted. Detailed examination of the forecast and analysis indicates that assimilating AWS before radar not only optimizes boundary-layer conditions but also enhances the coupling between cold pools and updrafts, resulting in improved simulation accuracy in both horizontal and vertical structures. These findings provide valuable insights for advancing the prediction of severe convective systems.
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Zhao et al. (2025) studied this question.
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