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December 8, 2025Emergency Medicine JournalOpen Access

Shifting patterns in emergency department attendance: a time series analysis

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Authors

PAPaul Aylin

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Overview

Observational study reveals shifts in emergency department attendance trends, indicating rising demands, especially among older adults with multimorbidity.

Key Points

  • This research evaluates trends in emergency department attendance in Northwest London, focusing on changes during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Segmented time-series analysis using quasi-Poisson regression for weekly attendance data.
  • Adjusted for seasonality and autocorrelation in the model.
  • Stratified analysis by age, sex, and socio-economic deprivation.
  • Examined trends across multimorbidity profiles.
  • 3,365,279 ED attendances recorded from February 2017 to September 2023.
  • Before the pandemic, annual attendance growth rate was 3.4%.
  • Post-pandemic attendance stabilized, but increased among older adults and those with complex multimorbidity.
  • Attendance decreased for the least deprived population group.

Cite This Study

Paul Aylin (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/693624ce4fa91c937236cf26https://doi.org/10.1136/emermed-2024-214412
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on emergency department visits in region Stockholm: a population-based study between 2018-20212026
  2. 2Emergency Department Utilization and Patient Acuity in the Setting of Care-Seeking Hesitancy: Insights from the COVID-19 Pandemic2025
  3. 3Ensuring Staffing Keeps Pace with Growth in Attendances! Historic Attendance Trend Analysis with Implications for Future Staffing.2026
  4. 4Emergency Department Overcrowding Despite Lower Post-Pandemic Volumes: A Multicenter Study2026
  5. 5Long Term Trends in Emergency Department Presentation Characteristics and Performance 2015–2022: A State‐Wide Data Linkage Analysis From New South Wales Australia2026