System Analysis of the Land Use Model of the Central Black Soil Region: Structural Transformations, Environmental Risks, and Prospects for Sustainable Development

The article provides a multi-level systematic analysis of the current state and trends in the transformation of land use in the Central Black Soil Region of Russia. Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the work includes the analysis of official statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service, materials from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, regional agrochemical services for 2010-2023, as well as the generalization of the results of scientific publications on agroecology and soil science. A comparative-historical approach, statistical and cartographic methods were used, allowing for the identification of the dynamics of land use structure, spatial differentiation of indicators, and the degree of manifestation of degradation processes. Results. It has been revealed that the predominance of plowing (up to 75-80% of agricultural lands), high specialization in growing grain and industrial crops, and intensive exploitation of black soils lead to a number of negative consequences - an increase in erosion processes, depletion of the humus horizon, disruption of the balance of macroelements, and a decrease in the biological diversity of agroecosystems. The dynamics of production and investment indicators show stable growth, but are accompanied by a significant increase in the anthropogenic load. Forecast scenarios indicate that further adherence to the inertial model will lead to an increase in degradation changes. While the implementation of environmental-saving and adaptive strategies will open up opportunities for restoring and sustainably using soil potential. Conclusion. The scientific significance of the research lies in the integrated assessment of the ecological and economic consequences of the highly intensive land use model for the Central Black Soil Region. The need to transition to innovative technologies, organic and soil-protective agriculture, as well as to optimize the structure of land use for the purpose of harmonizing production interests and preserving the natural resource potential of black soil landscapes in the long term has been substantiated.