Assessment of 15 CMIP6 Models in Simulating the East Asian Winter Monsoon and Its Relationship with ENSO

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is a critical component of the boreal winter global climate system, exerting profound influences on weather and climate anomalies across East Asia. This study systematically evaluates the capability of 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the typical associated circulation, temporal characteristics, and the relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the historical period of 1951–2013. Results indicate that the multi-model ensemble demonstrates considerable fidelity in reproducing the climatological spatial patterns of key EAWM systems, including the Siberian High, Aleutian Low, and low-level meridional winds. However, a systematic eastward shift is identified in the simulated sea level pressure anomaly centers over the North Pacific. In terms of temporal variability, most models realistically capture the dominant interdecadal periodicity of 15–20 years found in observations after 11-year low-passed filter. Four models reproduce a similar bimodal periodicity. Regarding the ENSO–EAWM relationship, approximately 80% of the evaluated models successfully capture the observed negative correlation, although its strength is consistently underestimated across the model ensemble. More notably, only three CMIP6 models faithfully capture the observed intrinsic asymmetry in the ENSO–EAWM relationship (i.e., the stronger impact of El Niño compared to La Niña).