A method for predicting future shorelines based on weighted-Markov-chains

Shoreline migration can directly reflect the stability of marine ecology, and human beings may be reminded to protect shorelines. However, shoreline migration has considerable randomness, and each segment of the shoreline has undergone highly diverse migrations. If the migration trend of a shoreline can be accurately predicted, human beings will take measures to maintain the marine ecological balance. Therefore, a method for predicting shoreline migrations, in which remote sensing technology is combined with a weighted Markov chain model, was proposed in this paper. This model was used to predict the position of shorelines in 2021, 2022 and 2023 on the basis of the inter-annual distance of shoreline migration from 1999–2020. The actual shoreline was compared with the shoreline predicted by the weighted Markov chain. In contrast to the existing methods, the weighted Markov chain has better stability and precision in the prediction of shorelines.