A global perspective on cold wave disasters

Cold-wave disasters cause substantial loss of life and property, yet their global patterns remain poorly understood in a warming climate. Using EM-DAT records (1951-2023), we quantified cold-wave disaster frequency, mortality, and damages worldwide. Linear-regression models were applied to assess temporal trends (annual and decadal), and "deaths per disaster" was calculated as a vulnerability indicator. A total of 312 cold-wave disasters occurred across 70 countries, causing 17 933 deaths and US $52.48 billion (inflation-adjusted) in damages. Europe recorded the most events, while Asia accounted for more than half of global deaths. India experienced the highest number of disasters and fatalities, and Peru had the greatest deaths per event. Disaster frequency rose significantly over time (β = 0.14 events year⁻¹; p = 0.017; R² = 0.11). Mortality showed no significant annual trend (p = 0.27) but increased significantly on a decadal scale (p = 0.007). Contrary to expectations of fewer cold extremes in a warming world, cold-wave disasters have increased globally. Mortality remains concentrated in low- and middle-income countries, underscoring the need for strengthened early-warning systems, equitable adaptation strategies, and international collaboration.