Threat anticipation and proactive response: The effect of defensive pessimism strategy on pilots' safety behavior

Human error is a significant cause of aviation accidents, and numerous individual psychological factors strongly influence pilots' safety behavior. Therefore, it is crucial to identify factors that may enhance pilots' safety behavior and explore their underlying mechanisms. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), this study examines whether, how, and under what conditions defensive pessimism affects pilots' safety behavior from a cognitive strategy perspective. Using a sample of 308 Chinese commercial airline pilots, we tested a moderated mediation model between defensive pessimism strategy and pilots' safety behaviors. The results indicate that defensive pessimism strategy has a direct positive effect on pilots' safety behavior and that this relationship is partially mediated by safety attitudes. Additionally, safety culture negatively moderates both the positive relationship between defensive pessimism strategy and safety attitudes and the indirect effects of this cognitive strategy on safety behavior through safety attitudes. On a theoretical level, this study first validates the effectiveness of the defensive pessimism strategy within the high-risk context of aviation safety, thereby advancing the understanding of its unique mechanisms. Second, by elucidating how individuals proactively employ specific cognitive strategies to shape behavioral attitudes and subsequently influence actual behavior, this study extends the Theory of Planned Behavior from a cognitive strategy perspective. Furthermore, it explores the boundary condition of safety culture, deepening our understanding of the interaction between organizational environments and individual cognitive strategies. Finally, on a practical level, this research offers valuable insights for aviation safety management, informing practices related to pilot selection, daily mental health support, and the exploratory development of the defensive pessimism strategy into a potential risk management tool.