Determinants of the Global Timber Trade Network Evolution a Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model Analysis

Against the backdrop of accelerating restructuring in the global economy and trade landscape, understanding the evolutionary mechanisms of timber trade networks has become increasingly crucial. Utilizing cross-national timber trade data from 2000 to 2024, this study applies a Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model to analyze the dynamic evolution of the timber trade network by incorporating multidimensional factors, including trade costs, resource costs, network structure, and trade structure. The findings reveal that: (1) Endogenous network mechanisms—particularly the triadic closure effect—play a dominant role in the formation of trade relationships; (2) resource-rich countries exhibit an export expansion with import restriction phenomenon, actively expanding exports while restricting imports to safeguard resource sovereignty; (3) timber price alone insufficiently reshapes trade ties, whereas sustainable forest management significantly drives network dynamics; and (4) net exporters favor developed economies via market screening. Economic development asymmetrically moderates trade—boosting exports in net exporters while curbing imports in net importers. This study moves beyond traditional economic perspectives, uncovering the profound effects of structural embeddedness and strategic behavior in timber trade, and the findings extend the theoretical framework for resource-based product commerce and provide empirical foundations for formulating equitable and sustainable forestry trade policies.