Assessing the Impact of Multi-Decadal Land Use Change on Agricultural Water–Energy Dynamics in the Awash Basin, Ethiopia: Insights from Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modeling

Sustainable agriculture in semi-arid regions like the Awash Basin is critically dependent on water availability, which is increasingly threatened by rapid land use and land cover (LULC) change. This study assesses the impact of multi-decadal LULC changes on water resources essential for agriculture. Using satellite-derived LULC scenarios (2001, 2010, 2020) to drive the WRF-Hydro/Noah-MP modeling framework, we provide a holistic assessment of water dynamics in Ethiopia’s Awash Basin. The model was calibrated and validated with observed streamflow (R2 = 0.80–0.89). Markov analysis revealed rapid cropland expansion and urbanization (2001–2010), followed by notable woodland recovery (2010–2020) linked to national initiatives. Simulations show that early-period changes increased surface runoff, potentially enhancing reservoir storage for large-scale irrigation. In contrast, later changes promoted subsurface flow, indicating a shift towards enhanced groundwater recharge, which is critical for small-scale and well-based irrigation. Evapotranspiration (ET) trends, validated against GLEAM (monthly R2 = 0.88–0.96), reflected these shifts, with urbanization suppressing water fluxes and woodland recovery fostering their resurgence. This research demonstrates that land use trajectories directly alter the partitioning of agricultural water sources. The findings provide critical evidence for designing sustainable land and water management strategies that balance crop production with forest conservation to secure irrigation water and support initiatives like Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative.