Failure Analysis and Machine Learning-Based Prediction in Urban Drinking Water Systems

This work illustrates a machine learning methodology to forecast pipe failure frequencies in drinking water systems to enhance asset management and operational planning. Three supervised regression models—Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP)—were developed and evaluated using historical failure data from Malatya, Türkiye. The primary predictive variables identified were pipe diameter, pipe type, pipe age, and seasonal average ambient air temperature. The MLP demonstrated superior performance compared to the other models, attaining the lowest RMSE (1.48) and the highest R2 (0.993) with respect to the training data, effectively capturing the nonlinear characteristics and failure patterns. The MLP was validated using two datasets from 24 District Metered Areas (DMAs) in Sakarya and Kayseri, Türkiye. The model’s anticipated failure frequencies exhibited strong concordance with the observed failure frequencies, even in regions of elevated failure density, indicating the model’s proficiency in identifying high-risk locations and facilitating the prioritization of maintenance activities. The work demonstrates the potential of machine learning in water infrastructure management. It emphasizes the importance of employing a hybrid method with Geographic Information Systems (GISs) in future research to enhance forecast accuracy and spatial analysis.