An Integrated Conceptual Approach for Biodiversity Risk Assessment: How Do Biodiversity Risk Patterns Respond to the Simultaneous Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization?

As biodiversity continues to decline under the combined pressures of climate change and urbanization, there is an urgent need for comprehensive risk assessment. Given the close interconnection between biodiversity and ecosystem functions, two major risk factors have been identified: (1) habitat loss (destruction) and (2) habitat gain expansion (disturbance). To address these challenges, this study proposes an integrated approach for biodiversity risk assessment that spatially and quantitatively evaluates risks from a holistic perspective. Specifically, an integrative modeling framework (BIOMOD2–LCM–MigClim) was developed to predict biodiversity patterns under the simultaneous impacts of climate change and urbanization. In parallel, novel indices, the Persistence Index (PI) and Disturbance Index (DI), were designed to assess biodiversity risks from multidimensional temporal and spatial perspectives. Based on the biodiversity risk types defined as Risk 1 (habitat loss; climate change risk species) and Risk 2 (habitat gain–expansion; invasive species), the study derived spatial distribution patterns and conducted a time series analysis of risk characteristics. Results highlight the dynamic ecological interactions in competitive areas, where Risk 2 advances by intruding into Risk 1 zones, thereby accelerating Risk 1 retraction. These findings confirm the need for integrated methodologies to capture shifting biodiversity responses and provide robust decision support for fundamental biodiversity policies.