The Burden of Pancreatic Cancer in Five East Asian Countries From 1990 to 2021 and Its Prediction up to 2036: A Systemic Analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2021

Background Pancreatic cancer (PC) presents a significant challenge for prevention and treatment, posing a serious threat to the health and lives of patients. The five East Asian countries (China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Mongolia) represent one of the most significant regions globally in terms of PC burden. Methods We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 regarding the prevalence, incidence, mortality, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability‐adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with PC in these five East Asian countries from 1990 to 2021. We employed joinpoint, age‐period‐cohort (APC), and decomposition analysis methods to assess the epidemiological characteristics of PC. To project the future burden of PC through 2036, we applied two prediction models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Bayesian age‐period‐cohort (BAPC) models. Results China recorded the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs among the five East Asian countries in both 1990 and 2021. Japan exhibited the highest age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age‐standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age‐standardized YLDs rate in both 1990 and 2021. Mongolia experienced significant increases in the number and rates of incidence, prevalence, death, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs from 1990 to 2021. The age group with the highest prevalence, incidence, mortality, YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs rates across the five East Asian countries was consistently those aged 70 and older. The incidence rate across the five countries is influenced by aging populations, surpassing global averages. Projections for 2030 and 2036 suggest that Japan will have the highest ASPR (13.23 in 2030 and 13.85 in 2036), ASIR (12.14 in 2030 and 12.53 in 2036), and ASMR (10.97 in 2030 and 11.39 in 2036) among the countries. Conclusion The disease burden of PC in the five East Asian countries has steadily increased over the past three decades, particularly among older adults due to population aging.