Quantifying Climate‐Driven Shifts in Macrofauna Communities: Integrating Species, Functional Traits and Multibiodiversity as Predictive Indicators Using Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling

Spatial–temporal patterns of biodiversity distribution provide critical insights into ecosystem responses to climate change. We chose the Bohai Sea, a temperate shelf sea highly influenced by climate change and human activities, as a case study to evaluate biodiversity dynamics. This study integrates presence–absence data of macrofaunal communities collected from 152 sampling stations (2011–2022) and employs ensemble species distribution models to assess the current and future habitat suitability of dominant species, functional traits and multidiversity. The findings reveal bottom salinity as the predominant factor driving macrofaunal distribution and biodiversity. The predictions indicate diverse responses: (1) no significant trends for species diversity or functional diversity indices; (2) expansion in habitat suitability for carnivorous feeders and species such as Sternaspis scutata , Moerella iridescens , Protankyra bidentata and Emplectonema gracile ; and (3) contraction in deposit feeders and Alpheus digitalis . This study highlights the key role of thermal and salinity tolerance in shaping future species distributions, and that of functional redundancy in sustaining ecosystem resilience, and further advocates for adaptive management to support temperate ecosystem conservation amid climate change.