The Dynamic Role of Urbanization in Shaping Carbon Emissions in West Africa: Interactions with Renewable Energy and Governance

The need to reduce carbon emissions in the face of rising climate risk and environmental degradation remains crucial to achieving environmental sustainability. This study investigates the relationship between urbanization, renewable energy, governance, and carbon emissions in West Africa, with a focus on four key questions: (1) Do renewable energy and governance reduce carbon emissions? (2) Does urbanization increase emissions? (3) Does urbanization moderate the effects of renewable energy and governance on emissions? (4) Are the Urban Environmental Transition (UET) theory and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis applicable in the West African context? Using unbalanced panel data from 16 West African countries covering the period 2002–2023, the study employs two econometric approaches — the instrumental variable fixed effects model and the Driscoll and Kraay fixed effects estimator with instrumented variables. The latter serves as the main estimator due to its robustness to cross-sectional dependence. Findings confirm both the UET theory and the EKC hypothesis in the region. Urbanization significantly increases carbon emissions, while renewable energy consumption and various governance indicators — including control of corruption, regulatory quality, and political stability — significantly reduce emissions. However, urbanization weakens the beneficial impact of renewable energy and governance on environmental quality. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy strategies that manage urban growth while strengthening renewable energy adoption and institutional quality to foster environmental sustainability in West Africa.