Evaluating Terrestrial Water Storage, Fluxes, and Drivers in the Pearl River Basin from Downscaled GRACE/GFO and Hydrometeorological Data

The Pearl River Basin (PRB) is a humid subtropical system where frequent floods and recurrent droughts challenge water management. GRACE and GRACE Follow-On provide basin-scale constraints on terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), yet their coarse native resolution limits applications at regional scales. We employ a downscaled TWSA product derived via a joint inversion that integrates GRACE/GFO observations with the high-resolution spatial patterns of WaterGap Global Hydrological Model (WGHM). Validation against GRACE/GFO shows that the downscaled product outperforms WGHM at basin and pixel scales, with consistently lower errors and higher skill, and with improved terrestrial water flux (TWF) estimates that agree more closely with water balance calculations in both magnitude and phase. The TWSA in the PRB exhibits strong seasonality, with precipitation (P) exceeding evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (R) from April to July and storage peaking in July. From 2002 to 2022, the basin alternates between multi-year declines and recoveries. On the annual scale, TWSA covaries with precipitation and runoff, and large-scale climate modes modulate these relationships, with El Niño and a warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) favoring wetter conditions and La Niña and a cold PDO favoring drier conditions. extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) with shapley additive explanations (SHAP) attribution identifies P as the primary driver of storage variability, followed by R and E, while vegetation and radiation variables play secondary roles. Drought and flood diagnostics based on drought severity index (DSI) and a standardized flood potential index (FPI) capture the severe 2021 drought and major wet-season floods. The results demonstrate that joint inversion downscaling enhances the spatiotemporal fidelity of satellite-informed storage estimates and provides actionable information for risk assessment and water resources management.