Northern cod comeback: 10 years after

A decade ago, in 2015, a paper in this journal heralded the “comeback” of Canada’s iconic Northern cod some 25 years after its collapse in the early 1990s. In the present paper, the stock status determined by current and past models and recent management is reviewed, 10 years later. Summarily, surplus production and stock growth have stalled, some years being negative, the stall point biomass being controversial (and well below historical norms). Structural equation models indicate the importance to production of spawning stock biomass (SSB), whose correlates are abundances of capelin (Mallotus villosus) (positive) and harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) (negative), with net production (enabling SSB growth) further reduced by fisheries. Reductions in the LRP (SSB thought necessary to avoid seriously impairing recruitment), from 1.3 to 0.25 million t, have led to increases in harvest allocations and reopened commercial Canadian and foreign fisheries, despite advice by government and independent science to keep removals low. Management objectives are opaque; if rebuilding, then enduring SSB growth must be a main objective, otherwise the Northern cod will be curtailed to a shadow of its historical abundance and socio-economic and cultural importance.