Analysis and prediction of disease burden related to opioid use disorder in China based on GBD 2021

Objective To analyze the disease burden of opioid use disorder (OUD) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict its future trends. Methods Annual data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD 2021) database were used to describe the disease burden through metrics such as prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Joinpoint regression models were employed to analyze trends in disease burden. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trends in age-standardized rates (ASRs). The age-period-cohort (APC) model explored age, period, and cohort effects on the OUD burden. Health inequality analyses examined the relationship between the OUD burden and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to forecast the OUD disease burden over the next 15 years. Results Compared to 1990, the OUD-related disease burden in China declined across various indicators by 2021, with a significant decrease in the age-standardized mortality rate (EAPC = –5.26). Meanwhile, the global disease burden of OUD increased. In China, females, individuals aged 15–24 years, and recent birth cohorts showed higher disease burdens. Over time, the relationship between DALYs and SDI gradually weakened. Projections suggest that the burden of OUD in China is expected to increase over the next 15 years. Conclusion Opioid misuse is a significant factor contributing to the global disease burden and challenges in anesthetic and surgical care. Effective measures are urgently needed to reduce the burden of opioid dependence and promote advancements in pain-free medical care.