Detecting Abandoned Cropland in Monsoon-Influenced Regions Using HLS Imagery and Interpretable Machine Learning

Abandoned cropland has been expanding due to complex socio-economic factors such as urbanization, demographic shifts, and declining agricultural profitability. As abandoned cropland simultaneously brings ecological, environmental, and social risks and benefits, quantitative monitoring is essential to assess its overall impact. Satellite image-based spatial data are suitable for identifying spectral characteristics related to crop phenology, and recent research has advanced in detecting large-scale abandoned cropland through changes in time-series spectral characteristics. However, frequent cloud covers and highly fragmented croplands, which vary across regions and climatic conditions, still pose significant challenges for satellite-based detection. This study combined Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) imagery, offering high temporal (2–3 days) and spatial (30 m) resolution, with the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to capture seasonal spectral variations among rice paddy, upland fields, and abandoned croplands. An XGBoost model with a Balanced Bagging Classifier (BBC) was used to mitigate class imbalance. The model achieved an accuracy of 0.84, Cohen’s kappa 0.71, and F2 score 0.84. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis identified major features such as NIR (May–June), SWIR2 (January), MCARI (September), and BSI (January–April), reflecting phenological differences among cropland types. Overall, this study establishes a robust framework for large-scale cropland monitoring that can be adapted to different regional and climatic settings.