Drivers and Future Regimes of Runoff and Hydrological Drought in a Critical Tributary of the Yellow River Under Climate Change

China’s Yellow River basin encounters widespread risks of reduced runoff and intensified hydrological drought. This study focuses on the middle and upper reaches of the Dahei River, the Yellow River’s primary tributary. In this region, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was employed to simulate hydrological processes, identify runoff changes and hydrological drought characteristics, and conduct attribution analysis from 1983 to 2022, as well as to project trends over the next 40 years. The results indicate that total runoff during the impact period (1999–2022) decreased by 55.26% compared to the baseline period (1983–1998). Climate change accounted for a contribution rate of 38.6% to this decline, while human activities accounted for 61.4%. Additionally, climate primarily altered surface runoff (SURQ) and lateral groundwater flow (LATQ) through precipitation changes, while land use had a predominant influence on total runoff volume by modifying SURQ. Both factors exhibited relatively minor effects on LATQ. Moreover, human activities contribute to hydrological drought at a rate of 36.11% to 94.25%. Drought probability is significantly influenced by climate through precipitation and temperature changes, while land use primarily mitigates hydrological drought by impacting the three runoff components. It is predicted that over the next 40 years, total runoff will decrease by 2.08% to 60.16%, along with hydrological droughts that are more frequent, longer in average duration, and more intense; however, the Maximum Drought Duration is anticipated to shorten. In the east and northeast, hydrological drought presents a trend of intensification, with central and western regions exhibiting weaker or declining changes.