Purpose: This study investigates the causal relationship between armed conflict and multidimensional poverty in Mali using nationally representative household survey data from 2014 to 2021. The research aims to provide rigorous empirical evidence examining how conflict affects poverty outcomes in a conflict-affected setting, addressing the critical need for understanding the complex dynamics between violence and socioeconomic vulnerability in sub-Saharan Africa. Methodology: The study employs an instrumental variable strategy using regional inequality levels as the primary instrument to address endogeneity concerns, exploiting spatial variation in historical wealth disparities that predict conflict likelihood while remaining plausibly exogenous to contemporary poverty outcomes. The analysis uses nationally representative household survey data spanning 2014-2021. Bootstrap estimation with 1,000 replications ensures robust inference, while a pseudo-panel approach constructed from repeated cross-sections validates the persistence of conflict effects over time. The methodology includes heterogeneity analysis examining differential impacts across demographic groups, regional analysis, and Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition to assess poverty levels and inequality. Climate shocks are incorporated as an additional variable to understand dual exposure effects on vulnerable populations. Findings: Armed conflict increases the probability of multidimensional poverty by 10.4 percentage points, while climate shocks independently raise poverty risk by 9.4 points. Female-headed households and rural populations are disproportionately affected by conflict-induced poverty. Education significantly mitigates conflict-related poverty risks. Central and northern regions bear the heaviest poverty burden. Conflict amplifies both poverty levels and inequality, with high-conflict zones exhibiting significantly higher Gini coefficients, demonstrating the compound effects of violence on socioeconomic outcomes. Research limitations/implications: The study is limited to Mali's specific context during 2014-2021, which may restrict generalizability to other conflict-affected regions. The reliance on household survey data may introduce reporting biases, particularly in conflict zones where data collection is challenging. Future research should explore longer-term effects and recovery patterns, examine the role of institutional factors, and investigate conflict prevention mechanisms. The findings contribute to understanding conflict-poverty dynamics in fragile states and inform theoretical frameworks linking violence to multidimensional development outcomes. Practical implications: The findings inform policy responses targeting resilience and equity in conflict-affected settings. Interventions should prioritize female-headed households and rural populations who face disproportionate impacts. Education emerges as a crucial protective factor, suggesting investments in educational infrastructure and access programs. Regional targeting should focus on central and northern Mali. Development programs must address both conflict and climate vulnerabilities simultaneously. The evidence supports implementing comprehensive poverty reduction strategies that account for conflict's multifaceted effects on household welfare and economic security. Social implications: The study reveals how armed conflict exacerbates existing inequalities, with vulnerable populations bearing disproportionate burdens. The intersection of conflict and climate shocks creates compounding vulnerabilities for marginalized communities. The differential impact on female-headed households highlights gender-based inequality in conflict settings. Increased inequality in high-conflict zones suggests potential for social fragmentation and continued instability. The findings underscore the need for inclusive peacebuilding processes that address underlying socioeconomic disparities and promote equitable recovery in post-conflict reconstruction efforts. Originality: This research provides novel empirical evidence on the causal relationship between conflict and multidimensional poverty using rigorous econometric techniques. The instrumental variable approach addresses methodological challenges in conflict research. The integration of climate shocks as a dual exposure factor represents an innovative analytical framework. The pseudo-panel methodology using repeated cross-sections offers a valuable approach for longitudinal analysis in data-constrained environments. The comprehensive examination of heterogeneous effects across demographic groups and regions contributes original insights to conflict and development literature, advancing understanding of vulnerability patterns in fragile states.
Melain Modeste Senou (Fri,) studied this question.