Multi-Source Concurrent Renewable Energy Estimation: A Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal CNN-LSTM Framework

Accurate and reliable estimation of renewable energy generation is critical for modern power grid management, yet the inherent volatility and distinct physical drivers of multi-source renewables present significant modeling challenges. This paper proposes a unified deep learning framework for the concurrent estimation of power generation from solar, wind, and hydro sources. This methodology, termed nowcasting, utilizes real-time weather inputs to estimate immediate power generation. We introduce a hybrid spatio-temporal CNN-LSTM architecture that leverages a two-branch design to process both sequential weather data and static, plant-specific attributes in parallel. A key innovation of our approach is the use of a physics-informed Capacity Factor as the normalized target variable, which is customized for each energy source and notably employs a non-linear, S-shaped tanh-based power curve to model wind generation. To ensure high-fidelity spatial feature integration, a cKDTree algorithm was implemented to accurately match each power plant with its nearest corresponding weather data. To guarantee methodological rigor and prevent look-ahead bias, the model was trained and validated using a strict chronological data splitting strategy and was rigorously benchmarked against Linear Regression and XGBoost models. The framework demonstrated exceptional robustness on a large-scale dataset of over 1.5 million records spanning five European countries, achieving R-squared (R2) values of 0.9967 for solar, 0.9993 for wind, and 0.9922 for hydro. While traditional ensemble models performed competitively on linear solar data, the proposed CNN-LSTM architecture demonstrated superior performance in capturing the complex, non-linear dynamics of wind energy, confirming its superiority in capturing intricate meteorological dependencies. This study validates the significant contribution of a spatio-temporal and physics-informed framework, establishing a foundational model for real-time energy assessment and enhanced grid sustainability.