Pan evaporation (PE) is widely used as an indicator of atmospheric evaporative demand and is relevant to irrigation demand and climate-related hydrological changes. Using daily records from 759 meteorological stations across China during 2002–2018, this study investigated the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and climatic controls of PE across seven major climate zones. Multiple decomposition techniques revealed a dominant annual cycle and a pronounced peak in 2018, while a decreasing interannual trend was observed nationwide. Spatial analyses showed a clear north–south contrast, with the strongest declines occurring in northern China. A random forest (RF) model was employed to quantify the contributions of climatic variables, achieving high predictive performance. RF results indicated that the dominant drivers of PE varied substantially across climate zones: sunshine duration (as a proxy for solar radiation) and air temperature mainly controlled PE in humid regions, while wind speed and relative humidity (RH) exerted stronger influences in arid and semi-arid regions. The widespread decline in northern China is consistent with concurrent changes in wind speed and sunshine duration, together with humidity conditions, which modulate evaporative demand at monthly scales. These findings highlight substantial spatial heterogeneity in PE responses to climate forcing and provide insights for drought assessment and water resource management in a warming climate.
Li et al. (Sat,) studied this question.