Looking Forward: Evaluating Management Scenarios for an Isolated Amphibian Population in a Dynamic Coastal Environment

ABSTRACT Urbanisation impacts biodiversity in coastal ecosystems. Conservation management is needed to improve species persistence in such areas where populations have become small and fragmented. We conducted a population viability analysis to compare management scenarios for an isolated population of the threatened green and golden bell frog ( Litoria aurea ) in a peri‐urban area of coastal south‐east Australia. The breeding population occupies a single wetland that is hydrologically connected to an intermittently open lagoon. The lagoon is periodically drained to reduce flood risk to residential areas, influencing the reproductive output of the population. We combined estimates of population size, demographics, dispersal and genetic diversity to compare the relative probability of local extinction over a 25‐year forecast window under four management scenarios: (1) lagoon draining at historic rates (status quo); (2) halving the incidence of lagoon draining; (3) creating new breeding habitat; and (4) supplementing the population. Our modelling predicted that the population had a 60% probability of extinction under the status quo scenario, while halving the frequency of lagoon draining or creating a new but hydrologically distinct wetland nearby reduced the probability of extinction to 6%. Predictions of population size at the end of the forecast period never reached zero when 10 adults were supplementing the population each year. Our analysis suggested that this L. aurea population will likely go extinct if the current frequency of lagoon draining continues. We believed the most cost‐effective strategy to improve the persistence of the population over a 25‐year management horizon is to reduce how often the lagoon is drained so that sufficient water remains in the wetland to support egg and tadpole survival. We highlighted that artificially manipulating the hydrology of coastal environments to reduce flood risk can compromise the persistence of hydrology‐dependent species.