ABSTRACT Effective conservation management of a complex ecosystem like the Serengeti can benefit from a systems‐wide approach to interactions between functional groups. This study presents a food web model of the Serengeti based on generalised Lotka–Volterra equations parameterised using data from the literature. The internal equilibrium point is shown to be locally stable with a return time of 2.3 years. Global stability of the system is confirmed through permanence analysis, and the results were qualitatively robust to assumptions regarding consumers' functional response. Analysis of indirect effects following ‘press’ perturbations reveals that increasing a consumer's density raises resource density in about 30% of cases, while increasing a resource's density reduces the densities of consumers in a similar proportion of instances. This indicates the risks of assuming that the effect of a change in the density of one species on another is accurately reflected by the sign of any direct effect between them. Indeterminacy analysis shows the signs of these net effects in the Serengeti to be highly determinate; therefore, these conclusions are likely robust despite moderate levels of uncertainty in the quantified direct interactions. Future applications of this model could include exploring the impacts of burning or livestock grazing on the vegetation's ability to sustain the broader ecosystem.
Clarke et al. (Thu,) studied this question.