Climate change in Iraq: temperature trend analysis based on the NASA POWER project data

This study was an analysis of temperature trends and temperature changes using long-term data to identify the effects of climate change in Iraq. It used 0.5° × 0. 625° gridded daily and monthly temperature records from the NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project, 1981–2024. Its aim was to determine the spatio-temporal trends in the maximum, minimum and average temperatures in Iraq. The accuracy of the NASA POWER project data was tested and the results indicated a very strong correlation (> 0.9) between the NASA data and the ground stations’ data. The Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator show increasing trends in the maximum, minimum and average temperatures on both seasonal and annual scales, with 95% confidence level (Cl) and the standardised test statistic (Zs values) greater than 1.96. The highest trend in average temperature was 0.053 °C/year (~ 2.34 °C in summer), while the lowest trend was 0.0314 °C/year (1.38 °C in spring). Over this period, Iraq’s annual maximum, minimum and average annual temperatures increased by 1.48 °C (0.034 °C/year), 1.9 °C (~ 0.48 °C), and 1.67 °C (0.038 °C/year), respectively. In 2024, the average annual temperature in Iraq was rising 1.08 times faster than the average global temperature. Over the same period, Iraq’s frost days decreased by 13.4 (0.304 days/year), a reduction of 42.9%, and its hot days increased by 18.9 (0.43 day/year), an increase of 60%. These findings are a robust indication that policymakers should take strong actions to tackle the consequences of climate change in terms of climate adaptation actions and policy-making initiatives to collaborate with experts and local communities.