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This research investigates how the proportion of fentanyl in illicit drug seizures relates to changes in opioid overdose deaths.

January 18, 2026JAMA Health ForumOpen Access

Proportion of Fentanyl Reports in Illicit Drug Seizures and Opioid Mortality

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Secondary analysis explores fentanyl's impact on opioid deaths in the U.S., suggesting significant associations.

This research investigates how the proportion of fentanyl in illicit drug seizures relates to changes in opioid overdose deaths.
Analyzed state-month level panel data from 2018 to 2024.
Included data from the National Forensic Laboratory Information System and CDC WONDER.
Measured opioid overdose deaths using specific claim descriptor codes.
Explored the association through fixed-effects modeling.
Opioid overdose deaths declined by 50%, from 2.2 to 1.1 per 100,000 from summer 2023 to fall 2024.
The proportion of fentanyl reports in drug seizures decreased from 28.8% to 23.2%.
A 1-percentage point decrease in fentanyl prevalence corresponded to 0.018 fewer overdose deaths per 100,000 population.
The strength of the association between fentanyl prevalence and overdose deaths weakened over time.

Dahlen et al. (2026) studied this question.

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