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January 20, 2026Geophysical Research Letters0 citationsOpen Access

Complex Networks Reveal Climate Models' Capability in Simulating Global Synchronized Extreme Precipitation

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QJQin JiangHWHui‐Min WangBLBiao Long

Key Points

  • This research aims to evaluate how well CMIP6 models simulate global synchronized extreme precipitation events.
  • Evaluated 11 CMIP6 models using complex network analysis and event synchronization techniques.
  • Analyzed extreme precipitation data from 1981 to 2014.
  • Compared model outputs against state-of-the-art reanalysis data.
  • CMIP6 models capture synchronized precipitation structures effectively at distances over 2,500 km.
  • The multi-model ensemble overestimates short-range synchronization frequency by 5.7%.
  • Significant regional biases were found in monsoon regions, with over 20% underestimation of node connectivity in boreal summer.

Abstract

Abstract Spatially synchronized extreme precipitation events are intensifying under anthropogenic warming. Accurate simulation of such compound extremes by global climate models underpins reliable climate projections for spatially compound risk assessment. Using complex network analysis combined with event synchronization, here we evaluate the performance of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in representing global synchronized structures of extreme precipitation during 1981–2014. Compared to state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis data, CMIP6 models effectively capture the scale‐dependent behavior of synchronized event pairs, particularly for teleconnections beyond 2,500 km. While the CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble mean overestimates short‐range (300–2,500 km) synchronization frequency by 5.7%, it well reproduces the overall network topology of global extreme precipitation. However, significant regional biases emerge in monsoon regions, where models systematically underestimate node connectivity by more than 20% during boreal summer, highlighting key areas for model improvement in simulating long‐distance synchronized precipitation events.

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Cite This Study

Jiang et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/696f1a629e64f732b51eeaa9https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl118219
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