What question did this study set out to answer?

To assess how accurately CMIP6 global climate models simulate the statistical properties and probability distributions of historical daily extreme precipitation beyond simple mean values.

October 1, 2021SHILAP Revista de lepidopterologíaOpen Access

Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A Global Investigation

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To assess how accurately CMIP6 global climate models simulate the statistical properties and probability distributions of historical daily extreme precipitation beyond simple mean values.
Conducted univariate comparisons between CMIP6 simulations and observational records using L-moments and relative difference metrics for annual daily precipitation maxima.
Performed bivariate evaluations using kernel density estimates of mean versus L-variation and L-skewness versus L-kurtosis.
Assessed full distribution tails by fitting Generalized Extreme Value distributions combined with an Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test against Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data.
Simulated statistical shape properties reflecting extreme event frequency and magnitude aligned closely with observations, with 70% of models matching observed mean and variation within a 10% difference margin.
Bivariate analyses revealed persistent coupled biases between mean precipitation and L-variation across multiple models, though the HadGEM3-GC31-MM simulation consistently reproduced observed values across all three test scales.
Pronounced systematic biases in extreme precipitation simulations were concentrated geographically in the Arctic, the Tropics, and arid to semi-arid regions.

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Implication

Global model evaluation uncovers distributional biases in CMIP6 extreme precipitation across arid and tropical regions, highlighting key projection uncertainties.

Cite This Study

Abdelmoaty et al. (2021) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d9d7d20f32475823a3c838 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002196

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Implication

Global model evaluation uncovers distributional biases in CMIP6 extreme precipitation across arid and tropical regions, highlighting key projection uncertainties.

Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A Global Investigation

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Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A Global Investigation

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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