Mathematical analysis solves exit probability game in linear diffusion processes, suggesting optimal strategies.
In this paper, we solve an exit probability game between two players, each of whom controls a linear diffusion process. One player controls its process to minimize the probability that the difference of the processes reaches a low level before it reaches a high level, while the other player aims to maximize the probability. By solving the Bellman–Isaacs equations, we find the sub-value and sup-value functions of the game in explicit forms, which are twice continuously differentiable. The optimal plays associated with the sub-value and sup-value are also found explicitly.
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Shangzhen Luo (2026) studied this question.
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