Climatic variables, such as temperature and humidity, can influence physiological and psychological states, potentially exacerbating mental health disorders. This study analyzed the temporal pattern of schizophrenia hospitalization rates in the municipality of Porto Alegre, southern Brazil, between 2013 and 2023, and explored associations with climate variables. An ecological time-series study was conducted using schizophrenia hospitalization data from the Brazilian Unified Health System. Rates were calculated based on the city’s population, and climate data were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology. Statistical analyses and machine learning techniques, including Gradient Boosting Machines and Generalized Additive Models, were used to assess associations. During the study period, 9200 schizophrenia hospitalizations were recorded, with average annual and monthly rates of 57.5 and 4.8 hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively. A seasonal pattern emerged, with higher hospitalization rates in autumn and winter and lower rates in summer (P = 0.002). The most significant climate variables for the predictive model were sunlight exposure, maximum temperature, and pitch evaporation. Municipal-level climate variables may be associated with schizophrenia exacerbation in Porto Alegre and could serve as predictive factors for psychiatric hospitalizations in similar urban settings.
Scherer et al. (Tue,) studied this question.