Cross-Modal Temporal Graph Transformers for Explainable NFT Valuation and Information-Centric Risk Forecasting in Web3 Markets

NFT prices are shaped by heterogeneous signals including visual appearance, textual narratives, transaction trajectories, and on-chain interactions, yet existing studies often model these factors in isolation and rarely unify multimodal alignment, temporal non-stationarity, and heterogeneous relational dependencies in a leakage-safe forecasting setting. We propose MM-Temporal-Graph, a cross-modal temporal graph transformer framework for explainable NFT valuation and information-centric risk forecasting. The model encodes image, text, transaction time series, and blockchain behavioral features, constructs a heterogeneous NFT interaction graph (co-transaction, shared creator, wallet relation, and price co-movement), and jointly performs relation-aware graph attention and global temporal–structural transformer reasoning with an adaptive fusion gate. A contrastive multimodal alignment objective improves robustness under market drift, while a risk-aware regularizer and a multi-source risk index enable early warning and interpretable attribution across modalities, time segments, and relational neighborhoods. On MultiNFT-T, MM-Temporal-Graph improves MAE from 0.162 to 0.153 and R2 from 0.823 to 0.841 over the strongest multimodal graph baseline, and achieves 87.4% early risk detection accuracy. These results support accurate, robust, and explainable NFT valuation and proactive risk monitoring in Web3 markets.