Optimal Nitrogen Application Strategies for Alfalfa Under Different Precipitation Patterns: Balancing Yield, Nitrogen Fertilizer Use Efficiency, and Soil Nitrogen Residue

Rational nitrogen applications can not only improve nutrient use efficiency, but also reduce environmental pollution caused by nitrogen leaching. To explore reasonable nitrogen application strategies for synergistically enhancing alfalfa production and ecological benefits, this study calibrated and validated the APSIM–Lucerne model based on field experiments conducted from 2021 to 2023. The effects of nitrogen application levels of 0, 80, 120, 140, 160, 180, 200, and 240 kg/ha on alfalfa yield, soil NO3−–N and NH4+–N residues, and nitrogen use efficiency under dry, normal, and wet years were simulated. The results indicate: (1) The calibrated APSIM–Lucerne model effectively simulates alfalfa yield and soil nitrogen residuals (R2 ranging from 0.67 to 0.91, NRMSE between 6.55% and 24.03%). (2) Increased nitrogen application significantly elevates soil nitrogen residue, yet alfalfa yield follows a pattern of initial increase followed by decline, with nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency continuously decreasing. Under identical nitrogen application rates, the wet year type proves more advantageous for achieving high yields, low nitrogen residue, and high nitrogen fertilizer use efficiency. (3) The nitrogen application thresholds for achieving increased alfalfa yields and high efficiency during dry years, normal years, and wet years are 107–140 kg/ha, 135–160 kg/ha, and 150–183 kg/ha, respectively.