The impact of rising water temperatures on kuruma shrimp aquaculture sustainability

Abstract The global warming-induced rise in seawater temperatures has reduced survival rates and sustainability in coastal aquaculture. In this study, we aimed to perform rearing experiments to assess the seedling survival rate and harvest size of kuruma shrimp ( Penaeus japonicus ), an important species for seafood production in Japan, under high-temperature conditions. In addition, we evaluated the reduction in aquaculture-suitable days predicted for future temperature scenarios. Our results demonstrate that kuruma shrimp seedling exposure to 36 °C for 1 day and 34 °C for 10 days reduced the survival rates to 50% and 55–60%, respectively. Furthermore, under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario, the number of aquaculture-suitable days is projected to decrease by 6 and 60 days (median) by 2050 and 2100, respectively, highlighting the significant challenges posed by climate change to the sustainability of shrimp aquaculture. The results of this study underscore the urgent need for adaptive measures to address climate change to ensure kuruma shrimp aquaculture sustainability.