On the Possibility of Melting Water Ice During the Recent Past of Mars: Implications for the Formation of Gullies

Abstract The formation of gullies on Mars has often been attributed to the melting of (sub)surface water ice. However, melting‐based hypotheses generally overlook key processes: (a) sublimation cooling by latent heat absorption, (b) the non‐stability of ice where melting conditions can be reached, and (c) the particular microclimates of gullied slopes. Using state‐of‐the‐art climate simulations, we reassess ice melting scenarios over the past 4 million years (obliquity 35°), beyond the estimated period of gully formation. We find that the melting of opaque water snow or ice at the surface of Mars is unlikely anywhere due to sublimation cooling, while (quasi‐) stable subsurface ice is typically too deep to reach melting temperatures. We propose an alternative mechanism in which seasonal frost sublimation destabilizes the regolith and brings the underlying water ice close to the surface, allowing rapid heating. Even under these optimal conditions, melting requires unrealistic assumptions. Ice containing a small amount of dust could melt via a solid‐state greenhouse effect, but both its possibility and frequency in Mars' recent past remain uncertain.