Enduring Gene Flow, Despite an Extremely Low Effective Population Size, Supports Hope for the Recovery of the Globally Endangered Lear’s Macaw

When analyzing the long-term viability of small, declining populations, it is essential to recognize that inbreeding and the erosion of genetic diversity are primarily driven by the effective population size, which is often a fraction of the total census count. The globally endangered Lear’s macaw (Anodorhynchus leari) is a restricted-range species endemic to the Caatinga ecoregion in NE Brazil. This species was only known in captivity due to wildlife illegal trade, until 1978, when a small population close to extinction was discovered in the wild, estimated at ca. 60 individuals in 1983. Conservation efforts have allowed for population recovery in recent decades, reaching a population of ca. 2273 individuals in 2022. Given these drastic population changes, a genetic assessment is important to empower conservation strategies with knowledge about the level of genetic variability, population genetic structure, inbreeding levels, and demographic history. We used a set of eight species-specific microsatellites to provide the first genetic assessment of the wild population of this species by genotyping non-invasive samples (molted feathers) collected in the known breeding and roosting sites of the species. Our results revealed a low effective population size (Ne = 49–80), which represents the main conservation concern. We also observed evidence of past bottlenecks. However, moderate levels of genetic diversity, no evidence of inbreeding, and a wide connectivity across the study area confirm a single population and set the ground for the potential natural recovery of this species and the recolonization of breeding sites across its former range.