Food price dynamics in Russia: assessing the role of ICT, oil prices, and geopolitical risk

This study examines the behaviour of food price inflation in response to changes in information and communication technology (ICT), global crude oil prices, and geopolitical risk (GPR) in the context of Russia. For this purpose, we have collected monthly data over the period of 2001 to 2022 and employed a cross-quantilogram approach. The findings reveal that GPR significantly and positively influences food price inflation, specifically at lower quantiles across short, medium, and long-term horizons. However, the long-term impact of global GPR is more pronounced than the short-term. Furthermore, GPR and crude oil prices have exhibited a positive and significant effect on food price inflation in the medium and long term. Whereas, ICT development has a significant negative impact on food price inflation across all time horizons. However, the mitigating effect is more pronounced in the long run. Additionally, we employed an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to check the robustness of our findings. The findings of the ARDL model are robust to the cross-quantilogram model. This study provides important policy implications for enhancing food security and sustainability.