Analysis of the Financial Markets in the Bulgarian Agricultural Sector

The purpose of this study is to examine the interrelationships between public and corporate finance, gross value added (GVA), and the output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. The value of crop production shows a strong correlation with all financial indicators of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria—public, corporate, and total—as well as with corporate finance in the national economy. The value of the final output of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria also exhibits a strong correlation with national corporate finance, the corporate finance of the agricultural sector, and this sector’s total financial resources, both public and private. The regression analysis demonstrates that public funding plays a leading role in mobilising private capital in the agricultural sector. A strong dependency is observed between state support, corporate lending, and total financial resources, confirming that public funds promote trust and stimulate investment activity. Crop production is identified as the structural driver of productivity and gross value added (GVA) of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria. However, excessive public subsidies may reduce its efficiency. Private loans—particularly agricultural credits—are emerging as a key mechanism for transforming the potential of the agricultural sector into actual growth. The regression models indicate the possibility that 1 billion BGN in loans lead to the creation of more than 2 billion BGN worth of crop production output, and more than 6 billion BGN in terms of final products. These findings justify that the sustainable development of the agricultural sector in Bulgaria is based on a balanced interaction between public financing and active private investment.